The Fantasy Truth

 

So now you want to know The Truth about whom you should take this week at Richmond.  It is a tough one to handicap as you will have some teams going for broke and some going not to break.  But I will drop you another 7.

 

The Musts

  1. Kasey Kahne (20.5)—Why put a guy with a career average finish of 19.0 number one on the list of Musts at Richmond?  Because he has to win, period.  He has done it once here for his first victory, so he very well could do it again.
  2. Junior (22.0)—Another guy who has to go in with a must win attitude.  Won here in the spring and has another win in 2004 here.  Has finished top 4 in 6 of the last 11 races here.
  3. Kyle Busch (22.4)—In three races here has two 4ths and a 5th.

 

Good Bets

  1. Kevin Harvick (23.2)—I hesitate to put him up here because he only needs a 40th to make the Chase and sandbagged big time at California, but he feels the spring race here was stolen from him.  He will be going for it.
  2. Greg Biffle (23.1)—Why he is priced this high I do not know, but has been in the top 8 the last 4 trips to Richmond.  Plus, he has nothing to lose.
  3. Denny Hamlin (21.9)—Was not supposed to do anything here in his first trip to Richmond in the spring and finished second.  Plus, he is on the bubble as well.

 

Sleepers

  1. Carl Edwards (24.1)—Another guy who is way too high in price, but has been running very well lately.  He will be looking to set himself up for a run at the million for 11th.
  2. Ryan Newman (20.8)—Usually would be a Must or a Good Bet at this track, but he has sucked this year.  Has run very well at Richmond with 4 of his 9 trips here in the top 3 and 6 of the 9 in the top 9.
  3. Clint Bowyer (16.5)—Was 10th in his only trip here in the spring.

 

Douches

  1. Jimmie Johnson (25.0)—Averages a 21.0 finish here in 9 career starts with one top 10.  You better get better than that for a guy valued at 25.0.  Plus, he will be sandbagging.
  2. Kurt Busch (21.7)—2 top tens in 11 career starts here means you should not take a guy who has sucked hind titty for the last few weeks.  I am sure he will lead 1st practice, may sit on the pole, and lead 2nd practice or Happy Hour.  Do not be fooled by the Penske curse!  Fast on Friday never translates!
  3. Joe Nemechek (16.1)—People always take a flyer on this guy since he won here in 2003.  He has a grand total of zero top 15’s since.

 

So now you want to know whom I would run?  Here The Truth—

Junior (22.0)

Denny Hamlin (21.9)

Kasey Kahne (20.5)

Elliott Sadler (19.0)

Clint Bowyer (16.5)

(99.9 total)

 

Now the Do NOT Run team—

Jimmie Johnson (25.0)

Kurt Busch (21.7)

Brian Vickers (19.0)

Joe Nemechek (16.1)

Robby Gordon (15.7)

(97.5 total)

 

Can’t handle it?  Tough shit, it’s THE TRUTH!!!!

 

The Fan