The Fantasy Truth

 

So now you want to know The Truth about whom you should take this week at California.  Hopefully you ignored the crap I posted about Bristol last week.  I mean seriously, Jeff Green?  You had to know I was full of shit on that one, right?

 

The Musts

  1. Matt Kenseth (25.6)—Won here in February and is on a two race winning streak.  His value plus the lack of good cheap drivers after 24 races this segment make him almost unaffordable, though
  2. Carl Edwards (23.7)—Do or die for the Chase at this point.  Has improved his finishing position one position each race starting with a 6th in this race 2 years ago.  Means he should finish second.
  3. Jamie McMurray (19.5)—Why in the hell am I taking perhaps the greatest underachiever of the 00’s as a Must in the middle of a shitty season?  The fact he has only missed the top 8 once (a 15th in the spring of 2004) at this track.

 

Good Bets

  1. Kasey Kahne (20.0)—Another do or die guy for the Chase.  Only does poorly here if he wrecks, otherwise he is a lock for the top 6.
  2. Kyle Busch (22.1)—Won here last Labor Day weekend, and tends to be a streaky driver.  Coming off a second at Bristol bodes well for this ugly bastard.
  3. Denny Hamlin (21.5)—Not enough history to give reasons he should perform well here, but this year, he has performed well everywhere.

 

Sleepers

  1. Casey Mears (19.2)—Likes to pull a top 10 out of his ass every so often at Cali so why not this weekend?
  2. J.J. Yeley (14.0)—Has been horrid lately but ran 8th here in February.  He is cheap and may pay off well.
  3. Reed Sorenson (15.8)—Ran 21st here in February, but since has posted some nice results at these big, flat tracks.

 

Douches

  1. Jimmie Johnson (25.1)—Has run 14th and 16th here in this race the past two years after clinching a spot in the Chase.  Nothing wrong with taking a guy who averages 15th, but a guy valued at 25.1 better give you more than that!
  2. Greg Biffle (23.4)—Everybody keeps talking about how great he will do here, but outside of last year when he finished second in points, his average here is 28.4!  That high of a value better be more of a sure thing if you are going to spend it.
  3. Tony Stewart (24.8)—I am not real sure about putting him in this column, but he has cracked the top 15 just twice in his last 8 races here.  Again, a lot of value to spend on a guy who is that iffy.

 

So now you want to know whom I would run?  Here The Truth—

Carl Edwards (23.7)

Kasey Kahne (20.0)

Jamie McMurray (19.5)

Casey Mears (19.2)

Scott Riggs (17.4)

(99.8 total)

 

Now the Do NOT Run team—

Jimmie Johnson (25.1)

Greg Biffle (23.4)

Bobby Labonte (17.5)

Dale Jarrett (17.1)

Ken Schrader (15.5)

(98.6 total)

 

Can’t handle it?  Tough shit, it’s THE TRUTH!!!!

 

The Fan