The  fantasy truth

 

So now you want to know The Truth about whom you should take this week at Bristol.  Again, I was extremely generous last week, and if you had run the team I told you to, you would have scored a 707, which brings my two week total to 1421.  This total would rank third in THS behind Dr. Wetzler’s 1452 and Mr. Chandler’s 1430 over those two weeks.  Last I checked everybody else is chasing those two so you might want to pay attention to me because you cannot handle it on your own.

The Musts

  1. Matt Kenseth (25.2)—Has an average finish of 8.9 here in 11 races since 2001 with 9 of those 11, 7 in the top 10, and 6 in the top 5, including a win.
  2. Greg Biffle (23.6)—9.9 average finish here in his career with 6 of 7 in the top 12.  Plus, he is hell bent on making the Chase.
  3. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (21.1)—Could just as easy be Harvick or Kurt Busch, but those two are better spring racers here and Junior is a better summer racer here.  Has never missed the top 15 here in August and has a win.  If he does not run well here, he misses the Chase.

Good Bets

  1. Kurt Busch (22.4)—You are wondering why I have not stuck a guy who has won 5 of the last 9 races here in The Musts column?  Because 4 of those wins came in the spring and this guy looks like a field filler right now.
  2. Kevin Harvick (23.3)—Hottest driver out there now even with his top 5 string broken with an 11th at Michigan.  Average summer race finish is 13.8, average spring race finish is 7.8.  His last two August trips here have averaged 30.5.  Only reason he misses The Musts
  3. Jeff Gordon (22.7)—The recent history numbers really drop off after the previous 5, so Gordon’s chosen on past performance more than present.  Plus, if Kenseth does not plow him in the ass in March, Jeffie’s a top 5 car.

Sleepers

  1. Bobby Labonte (17.5)—5th here in the spring when people thought PE was turning it around.  They aren’t, but Bobby still can race a short track.
  2. Ken Schrader (15.0)—You will not see him all race and he will finish 12th.  Keeps his nose clean here somehow.  Maybe the cardboard Schrader will be driving too.
  3. Mike Wallace (13.7)—Absolutely no reason to think this, but for some reason when I saw his name on the entry list, I was drawn to it.  Never happened before with him, so maybe the most talented Wallace will shine at Bristol.  His less talented brother Rusty seemed to.

Douches

  1. Martin Truex Jr. (16.6) —Even though his first Busch win came here, do not be tempted!
  2. Kasey Kahne (19.9)—This track is not pretty for this pretty boy.  25.4 average finish in 5 races here gives Junior fans hope.
  3. Jeff Burton (17.2)—Another driver-track combo that do not go well together.  23.0 average finish since 2001 give Biffle’s 3 fans hope.

 

So now you want to know whom I would run?  Here’s The Truth—

Greg Biffle (23.6)

Kevin Harvick (23.3)

Elliott Sadler (19.2)

Bobby Labonte (17.5)

Jeff Green (16.1)

(99.7)

 

Now the Do NOT Run team—

Jimmie Johnson (25.1)

Jeff Burton (22.0)

Kasey Kahne (19.9)

Martin Truex Jr. (16.6)

Joe Nemechek (16.2)

(99.8)

 

Can’t handle it?  Tough shit, it’s THE TRUTH!!!!

 

The Fan