By Jay Morrison (Sundayss)

 

No matter how opposed you are to growing number of Buschwhackers, Cup drivers who moonlight in the Busch series, it’s time put aside the hate and embrace the trend as a helpful fantasy tool.

As the number of Buschwhackers grows, so, too, does the correlation between dominance in a Busch event and success in the following day’s Cup race.

In 2002, there were 15 Busch winners who also ran in the Cup race at the same track the following day. The average Cup finish among those drivers was 15.7.

In 2003, 17 Busch winners were on the track the next day, racing to an average finish of 18.5. In 2004, 17 drivers posted an average finish of 18.0.

In 2005, the numbers started to jump.

There were 23 same-track weekends, and all 23 of those Busch races were won by Cup drivers. Their average Cup finish, however, remained constant at 18.39.

But look what happened last year: We had 26 same-track weekends, and not only were all 26 won by Cup drivers, but their average finish climbed all the way to 11.96. And that’s including Greg Biffle’s 42nd place showing due to a blown engine in the first race at Fontana. Take that away and the average finish was 10.7.

No matter how good you are at picking lineups, you’d be foolish to ignore any system with that kind of predictive success.

Sixteen of the 26 Busch winners last year ended up posting a Top 10 finish the following day in the Cup race, and a remarkable 12 of them placed in the Top 5.

And that trend seems well on its way to continuing in 2007.

Kevin Harvick had never won a race at Daytona prior to last weekend, but after winning Saturday’s Orbitz 300 Busch event, he came right back and took the checkered flag in Sunday’s Daytona 500.

Even before Daytona, Harvick had become the poster boy for this growing phenomenon. His last nine Busch wins have been followed by Cup finishes of 1st, 10th, 16th, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 15th, 3rd and 1st. That factors out to a remarkable average finish of 5.7.

Carl Edwards is another one to watch. His last three Busch wins have led to Cup finishes of 2nd, 3rd and 6th.

As far as tracks go, Bristol seems to be the best illustration of this growing trend. Here are the last seven winners of Busch races at Bristol, with their next-day Cup finish in parenthesis:

Kyle Busch (8th), Matt Kenseth (1st), Harvick (1st), Ryan Newman (39th), Martin Truex Jr. (DNS), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (1st) and Harvick (7th).

While Newman’s 39th-place showing seems to indicate the system isn’t fail-proof, it’s actually trumped by the first law of fantasy NASCAR, which is:  Never, ever, put Ryan Newman in your lineup.

So make sure you take a look at the Busch results this weekend before submitting your fantasy lineup. You may end up falling in love with these Buschwhackers after all.